Thomas O. Falk

U.S. former President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, a bandage on his ear after being wounded in an assassination attempt, raises a fist as he arrives during the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention, Wisconsin, July 15, 2024. /CFP

Assassination has long been a shadow hanging over the American presidency. Four sitting U.S. presidents have been killed in office – Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley, and John F. Kennedy. Each of these tragic events shocked the nation to its core and altered the political trajectory of the country in profound ways.

The republic has also endured numerous assassination attempts on sitting presidents, including those against Andrew Jackson, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Ronald Reagan, all of which were unsuccessful.

But today, in the hyper-partisan climate of 21st century America, we find ourselves confronting something different – a level of national volatility arguably not seen since the Civil War.

After all, the two assassination attempts on Donald Trump signal a deep and dangerous divide in American society, one that transcends the personal controversies surrounding Trump himself and exposes a larger, more alarming rift in the national fabric.

The attempt on President Ronald Reagan's life in 1981 provides a useful, if sobering, contrast here. Reagan's near-fatal encounter with would-be assassin John Hinckley Jr. produced a rare and fleeting moment of national unity. On that fateful day, as Reagan was rushed to the hospital, the attending surgeon reportedly told the president, who asked jokingly "I hope you're all Republicans," "today, Mr. President, we're all Republicans" – a touching and humanizing moment, symbolic of a national ethos that recognized, however briefly, that some things transcend partisan lines.

The nation came together then, not because everyone agreed with Reagan's policies, but because there was still an underlying consensus that the presidency, as an institution, was to be respected and defended. The health of the commander-in-chief mattered, regardless of political affiliation. The system itself – American democracy – was under threat, and that realization provoked a collective response of sympathy, concern, and even patriotism.

Contrast that with the two assassination attempts on Donald Trump. Within a week, the story how he literally dodged a bullet had all but vanished from the media. The golf course incident yesterday will suffer the same fate.

But the fact that such a serious threat to a presidential candidate could be so easily brushed aside tells us something disturbing about the current state of our national psyche and this indifference is not simply a reflection of Trump's polarizing persona, though that is undoubtedly a factor. Instead, it is a manifestation of a much deeper sickness – a political and social divide that has metastasized over the years into something far more dangerous than mere partisan disagreement.

The divisions in today's America are rooted in questions of identity, race, culture, and what it means to be American. They are not merely policy debates about taxes, healthcare, or foreign affairs; but existential conflicts about the very nature of the country and who gets to define it.

The Trump presidency did not necessarily create this divide, though it certainly exacerbated it.

At the same time, identity politics on the left have contributed to an atmosphere where political opponents are not merely disagreed with, but demonized. The very notion of compromise has become anathema in this environment.

Social media has played an especially toxic role in stoking this division further. In the aftermath of the recent assassination attempts on Trump, platforms like X, Facebook, and fringe websites have been flooded with conspiracy theories suggesting that the Democratic Party, or elements within it, were behind the attempts on Trump's life. These claims are, of course, unfounded, but in an era where truth is often subordinate to ideological loyalty, they gain traction quickly.

This toxic feedback loop, where violence is met with conspiracy, and conspiracy with more outrage against the other side creates an environment where political violence becomes almost normalized and yes, inevitable.

As a result of all these factors, we are currently witnessing the erosion of basic democratic norms and the collapse of any shared national narrative. Reagan's brush with death united a nation because, at the end of the day, there was still a basic respect for the office of the presidency, and for the democratic system itself. Today, that respect has evaporated to the point where political violence has become just another news item – fleeting, sensational, but ultimately forgettable.

This issue these days is hence no longer that a president could be assassinated, but that such an event might no longer even matter in the grand scheme of things. And that is perhaps the most troubling thought of all.

(Thomas O. Falk, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a London-based political analyst and commentator. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from the University of Birmingham and specializes in U.S. affairs.)