Xin Ping

Former U.S. President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is surrounded by U.S. Secret Service agents at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, July 13, 2024. /CFP

The attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump at his campaign rally on July 13 in Pennsylvania has heightened public concerns about political violence in the U.S., a highly polarized country where presidential elections can easily ignite instability and grievances. When Donald Trump, his face bloodied, pumped his fist in defiance and mouthed "Fight! Fight!", what I saw was a picture of horror, anger and division.

A moment of déjà vu in American history

History repeats. Four U.S. presidents have been assassinated while in office and many presidential candidates have been targeted. Abraham Lincoln, the 16th U.S. president who led the country through the Civil War and played a major role in the abolition of slavery, was assassinated in 1865, which was believed to be part of a larger political conspiracy. Almost a century later, John F. Kennedy, the 35th U.S. president, was fatally shot while riding in a presidential motorcade through Texas in 1963. Just three years ago in 2021, the Capitol Building was attacked by a mob of Trump supporters who tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election result.

The warning siren has already been sounded. The Dangers to Democracy survey report by the University of Chicago indicates that around 40 percent of Americans have a deep distrust of American democratic institutions. They believe that elections will not solve America's fundamental problems, and this deep distrust is shared across the political spectrum.

The report also notes the first increase since 2022 in the number of respondents who agree that "the use of force is justified to restore Trump to the presidency." With growing TV and social media coverage of the fierce Biden-Trump race, differences in people's political positions are so sharp that they have become affective polarization. This can lead to increased hostility toward members of the opposing party, and may also erode the ability of people to work together for the common good. In other words, U.S. presidential elections are widening the deep and bitter political divide in the country.

'Divided we fall'

At the time of this writing, the shooter's motive still remains unclear. What we do know is that after the Capitol Hill attack in January 2021, political and emotional divides in American society have intensified. Liberals and Conservatives are more inclined to disagree and even confront one another. Political polarization has heightened the risk of extremism, and the ongoing election has morphed into an ideological battle between the two parties. If lessons are to be learned from the Capitol Hill riot, Americans should now know that a "divided nation" takes a toll on security, stability and, in many cases, human life.

Rome was not built in a day and the great divide in the U.S. has widened over time. Be it a coincidence or not, several days before Trump's rally shooting, Project 2025 – a 900-page book with detailed policy proposals drafted by some heavyweight conservatives – made headlines again in the U.S. This document is designed to serve as a blueprint for the incoming conservative president and is believed to be an epitome of Trumpism.

Among the suggestions are the sacking of thousands of civil servants who are not Trump supporters, expanding the power of the president to effectively override many democratic institutions, and even dismantling some aspects of the federal government. When Project 2025 was first unveiled last year, many working in the U.S. government feared that some of the proposals could mount to political persecution, and could make thousands of career officials jobless and incite public unrest. Once implemented, the U.S. president could have unrestricted executive power and American democracy would be at risk.

Perhaps the shooting may win presidential-nominee Donald Trump more votes. But it is hardly a victory for the American people. When the shooting happened, one spectator in the crowd was killed, and two others were seriously injured. The man killed, a Pennsylvanian firefighter and father of two, died protecting those he loved. He dove over his wife and little girl to shield them from the bullets that came at the crowd. As the U.S. sleepwalks into an abyss of horror, anger and division, more families will pay the price for the chaos and wreckage of this declining empire.

(Xin Ping is a commentator on international affairs, writing regularly for Xinhua News Agency, CGTN, Global Times, China Daily, etc.)